urwahmadani

I know someone on this forum has an idea or even a guess on what will make gold go up. We're heading for December and gold seems to be stuck in low. Any ideas? Will this Fiscal Cliff gathering turn into a huge bump or a big nada? Will Germany's approaching audit of their gold we hold at Fort Knox bring on a price hike? Something's gotta give, silver what the heck is going on are we (USA) doing that well financially that the price of both gold and silver will stay right where they're at? What will it take for silver to reach $50 an oz? What will take for gold to hit $1850 an oz? Those prices are certainly do-able, what gives? Anyone?

1) A fairly well-informed discussion on NPR the other day described the new "consensus" (ahem.) The Fiscal Cliff won't be a catastrophe as many reckoned earlier but more like a slow bleed, with anticipated decline on various econ/mkt factors. More bearishly, I suppose the stock mkt has a -25% downside here, warranting reallocation (REDUCING RISK, RAISING CASH and ADDING HEDGES in spec paper portfolios.) But I'm a bear by nature and very cynical that 'problems unsolved must get worse.'

2) Germany's audit of NYFed Au: nada. Call for withdrawing said Au from USA > Ger: maybe marginally bullish for Au, on the news/interest.

3) 'Something's Gotta Give' : I agree, but what? Perhaps there's a spookier outlier (exogenous event) that will tank mkts instead? idk.

4) Silver @ $50.: I think very very unlikely until AFTER the next sharp selloff/flash crash/leg of deflation is over and mkts have been juiced by yet another round of QE. Iminently, I foresee volatility with bigger downside risk: POS @ $20. = -43% decline off the near peak. That's the lower end of any sharp shock I'd "anticipate." All this printing/easing of the past few years - and very little financial reform - has NOT made the mkts 'more stable' so know-your-risk and avoid panic surprises.

Gold @ 1850: more likely in mid-Spring 2013 IF the winter retrace is far weaker than I imagine, less than -11%: 1792 > 1600 ...... 1600 > 1850 = 15.6%.

Just my two cents.

I think it is too difficult to predict the price of gold by looking at events.

I've been watching gold build a cup and handle formation, visible on a two year chart. The price stayed above 1625, which to me would have resulted in a failed formation. Now, if it can get above 1800 and close there for at least three consecutive days, the next big move appears to be up. This might take a few more weeks.

Why will this happen? I don't know. But as long as gold stays in a bull market as evidenced by the charts, I'm sticking with it.

I discount almost all chartists but love to read their "technical opinions" anyway. The same chart can be read soooo many different ways, LOL

Statistically speaking, November and '30-day periods after Hurricanes' are typically BULLISH for POG so history's on your side for an UPTREND by 11/30.

I think it is too difficult to predict the price of gold by looking at events Contrarily I believe more bad news will send Gold lower. Do you suppose Au and the stock mkts are decoupled? Do you see any counterparty risks looming (say, insurance cos) or anything to trigger less-dramatic stock mkt failures repeating 2008? I won't touch on anything "political" here but those reasons/explanations might become the game of whack-a-mole, if a sharp declines ensue across stock/commodity indices (and not all, the same, at once.)

I discount almost all chartists but love to read their "technical opinions" anyway. The same chart can be read soooo many different ways, LOL

Me too. But I've found that if you limit technical analysis to one pattern - breakouts from basing patterns in the middle of bull market moves - the success rate goes up. But if you see any chartist draw a line into the future, you know they are guessing.

08:28 PM

fwiw an analyst (David Kostin) at GS just predicted the S&P500 down -10% from Friday's close (11/9/2012) through 12/31/2012.

Do we alll accept the premise of RISING ASSET CLASS CORRELATION with QE? I think this 24 month rolling correlation chart shows that's been true for US stocks & Gold.

Then look at a specific SP500 retracements (>- 7%) since 3/9/2009. Consider POG's correlation by time, duration, magnitude: rarely, sometimes, mostly?
I proxy w/ SPY and GLD.

6/12-7/10/2009
4/23-7/2/2010
7/22-8/19/2011
10/28-11/25/2011
4/27-7/1/2012

In these reflationary QE days, IF we accept that Au/Ag and US stocks are now correlated 'more-or-less' THEN a -10% decline puts ~POG USD1,560.

On this thread I suggested other & different reasons for an -8% Decline in POG from 10/29/2012:
Natural Disaster (Sandy) and the Price of PM's??

Asset prices rise in low interest rate environments, because there is a lot of free money being created for the sake of cheap loans.

The bellwhether is whether interest is higher or lower than inflation. If inflation outpaces interest, it doesn't matter how high interest rates go, it is still a negative REAL interest rate.

If interest outpaces inflation then you have positive real interest rates. Until this becomes a reality, or until we can turn lead into gold, there is no reason the price will not continue to rise overall.

I also put a very slim chance silver breaks $50 without another, bigger MF Global or outright failure to deliver the metal on the COMEX. Plenty of room to raise margins otherwise. Gold will have to break $2000 for this to happen IMO which I put the biggest likelihood on happening due to instabilitly in MENA. Ultimately I believe it will take a silver shortage, so I watch the COMEX inventories which at last estimates are around 200 MOz, which is roughly 10 weeks worth of mining supply. Not a lot of room to breathe if you ask me.

To my knowledge (per Reuters) Germany is willing to accept a written response of their gold audit, and will trust the Fed's word. That gold is under Manhattan at the bottom of the ocean. It has a very interesting vault system design that is for all intents and purposes impossible to rob. It commands a high level of trust. Fort Knox has the nation's money, and it is probably not there, but there is little concern about Manhattan apparently.

I know someone on this forum has an idea or even a guess on what will make gold go up. ..... Anyone?

People asked the same questions 12 years ago when gold was less than $300/oz. The question should be, what has changed with the economy as to keep it from going up now.

urwahmadani

সোমবার, ১২ নভেম্বর, ২০১২

Gold or Silver prices, what will make the prices go up?? Did we top ...

Gold or Silver prices, what will make the prices go up?? Did we top out already?

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